সোমবার, ২৮ জানুয়ারি, ২০১৩

Caterpillar sees uncertain 2013 after tough 4Q

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) ? Caterpillar said on Monday that its 2013 profit could shrink if the world's economy doesn't pick up in the second half of the year, as mining companies and builders remain cautious about buying new gear.

The cloudy outlook for the year came as Caterpillar reported a fourth-quarter profit less than half as big as a year ago because of a deal in China that went bad and slower growth around most of the world.

Caterpillar Inc. is the largest maker of construction and mining equipment, so its performance rises and falls with the world's economy. It tries to predict where the economy is headed so it knows how many excavators, bulldozers, and mining trucks to build.

If recent economic improvements continue, this could be a record year for Caterpillar, its executives said. But if this year is a replay of the last two, where growth and confidence declined in the second half, "2013 could be a tough year," said Doug Oberhelman, chairman and CEO.

Caterpillar started 2012 expecting the U.S. economy to grow at least 3 percent but economists estimate annual growth was a little more than 2 percent. In April, the company was still forecasting 8.5 percent growth in China, but the world's second-largest economy expanded by 7.8 percent last year, its weakest annual performance since the 1990s.

Caterpillar dialed back production in the second half of 2012, which hurt fourth-quarter revenue and profits. Caterpillar and its dealers have both been trying to sell off inventory. Reduced production will continue at least through the first quarter, the company said.

For this year, Caterpillar expects revenue of $60 billion to $68 billion, with a profit of $7 to $9 per share. Analysts had been expecting a profit of $8.54 per share on revenue of $64.58 billion.

Caterpillar said there's a wide range in its outlook because of the high level of uncertainty in the world. It expects relatively weak growth in the U.S. economy. Growth in China will improve, but not back to the levels seen in 2010 or 2011, Caterpillar said. It expects Europe to continue to struggle.

It said first quarter revenue and profits will be "significantly lower" than the same period last year.

In the quarter ended Dec. 31, Caterpillar earned $697 million, or $1.04 per share, down from a profit of $1.55 billion, or $2.32 per share a year earlier.

The most recent quarter included a non-cash charge of 87 cents per share to write down the purchase of Zhengzhou Siwei.

Not counting the write-down and a $300 million tax benefit, Caterpillar would have earned $1.46 per share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had been expecting a profit of $1.69 per share.

Revenue fell 7 percent to $16.08 billion as sales fell everywhere except Latin America.

Revenue from construction equipment fell 25 percent. But sales of mining gear ? now Caterpillar's single largest category by revenue ? grew 14 percent on improvements in all regions except North America, where coal mining is in decline.

Caterpillar's $653 million purchase of Siwei in June gave it a new business ? roofing supports for mines ? in China, the world's largest coal producer.

But on Jan. 18, Caterpillar said it had found "deliberate, multi-year, coordinated accounting misconduct" in the accounting at Siwei, and said it will write down its investment in the company by $580 million. It also said it dismissed several senior managers at the company.

Oberhelman said on a conference call that new Caterpillar managers tried to reconcile Siwei's inventory with what was on the books. They found a significant discrepancy, he said, prompting a deeper investigation.

"What we discovered was deliberate, multiyear, coordinated accounting misconduct at Siwei," he said. "It was executed by several senior managers at Siwei for the purpose of inflating sales, understating costs, and over-reporting profit, and it included fabricated documentation designed to cover their tracks."

He said Caterpillar is "considering all options to recover our losses and hold those responsible accountable for their wrongdoing." He said the company wouldn't comment further on "pending or contemplated litigation."

Asked why the physical inventory at Siwei wasn't checked before the deal closed, Caterpillar Chief Financial Officer Brad Halverson said in an interview that such a check wouldn't normally be done as part of the process of evaluating a company. "We did our normal due diligence process," he said.

For all of 2012, the company's profits rose 15 percent to $5.68 billion, or $8.48 per share, up from $4.93 billion, or $7.40 per share, in 2011. Revenue rose 10 percent to $65.88 billion, from $60.14 billion.

Shares of the Peoria, Ill.-based company rose $1.40 to $96.98 in afternoon trading.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/caterpillar-sees-uncertain-2013-tough-4q-185826107--finance.html

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Stan Musial remembered during funeral Mass

AAA??Jan. 26, 2013?3:24 PM ET
Stan Musial remembered during funeral Mass
By R.B. FALLSTROMBy R.B. FALLSTROM, AP Sports Writer?THE ASSOCIATED PRESS STATEMENT OF NEWS VALUES AND PRINCIPLES?

Pallbearers carry the casket containing the body of former St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Stan Musial out of the Cathedral Basilica of Saint Louis following his funeral Mass, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013, in St. Louis. Musial, one of baseball's greatest hitters and a Hall of Famer with the Cardinals for more than two decades, died Saturday, Jan. 19. He was 92. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Pallbearers carry the casket containing the body of former St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Stan Musial out of the Cathedral Basilica of Saint Louis following his funeral Mass, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013, in St. Louis. Musial, one of baseball's greatest hitters and a Hall of Famer with the Cardinals for more than two decades, died Saturday, Jan. 19. He was 92. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Pallbearers carry the casket containing the body of former St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Stan Musial out of the Cathedral Basilica of Saint Louis following his funeral Mass, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013, in St. Louis. Musial, one of baseball's greatest hitters and a Hall of Famer with the Cardinals for more than two decades, died Saturday, Jan. 19, 2013. He was 92. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Pallbearers carry the casket containing the body of former St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Stan Musial before the start of his funeral Mass at the Cathedral Basilica of Saint Louis, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013, in St. Louis. Musial, one of baseball's greatest hitters and a Hall of Famer with the Cardinals for more than two decades, died Saturday, Jan. 19, 2013. He was 92. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

(AP) ? Stan Musial was remembered as a Hall of Famer on and off the field during a 2-hour funeral Mass.

Broadcaster Bob Costas, his voice cracking at times, pointed out during Saturday's lengthy tribute that in 92 years of life, Musial never let anyone down.

Among those in attendance were baseball Commissioner Bud Selig, former St. Louis standout Albert Pujols and Hall of Famers Bob Gibson, Lou Brock, Bruce Sutter and Red Schoendienst.

The 90-year-old Schoendienst once roomed with Musial.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c25518f464186bf7a2ac026580ce7/Article_2013-01-26-Musial%20Funeral/id-0892ab1073084330a3ea396b660a0d36

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Video: Will partisanship prevent legislative progress?

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Egypt declares state of emergency in 3 provinces

Smoke rises after Egyptian protesters clash with police, unseen, in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Violence erupted briefly when some in the crowd fired guns and police responded with volleys of tear gas, witnesses said. State television reported 110 were injured. Egyptian health officials say 3 have been killed in clashes between protesters and police in Port Said. (AP Photo)

Smoke rises after Egyptian protesters clash with police, unseen, in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Violence erupted briefly when some in the crowd fired guns and police responded with volleys of tear gas, witnesses said. State television reported 110 were injured. Egyptian health officials say 3 have been killed in clashes between protesters and police in Port Said. (AP Photo)

Egyptians chant slogans during a mass funeral in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Tens of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of the restive Egyptian city of Port Said on Sunday for a funeral for most of the 37 people killed in rioting a day earlier, chanting slogans against Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. (AP Photo)

Egyptians carry the coffin of a man killed during a mass funeral in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Tens of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of the restive Egyptian city of Port Said on Sunday for a funeral for most of the 37 people killed in rioting a day earlier, chanting slogans against Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. (AP Photo)

Egyptians pray during a mass funeral in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Tens of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of the restive Egyptian city of Port Said on Sunday for a funeral for most of the 37 people killed in rioting a day earlier, chanting slogans against Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. (AP Photo)

Egyptians carry the coffin of a man killed during a mass funeral in Port Said, Egypt, Sunday, Jan. 27, 2013. Tens of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of the restive Egyptian city of Port Said on Sunday for a funeral for most of the 37 people killed in rioting a day earlier, chanting slogans against Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. (AP Photo)

(AP) ? Egypt's president declared a state of emergency and curfew in three Suez Canal provinces hit hardest by a weekend wave of unrest that left more than 50 dead, using tactics of the ousted regime to get a grip on discontent over his Islamist policies and the slow pace of change.

Angry and almost screaming, Mohammed Morsi vowed in a televised address on Sunday night that he would not hesitate to take even more action to stem the latest eruption of violence across much of the country. But at the same time, he sought to reassure Egyptians that his latest moves would not plunge the country back into authoritarianism.

"There is no going back on freedom, democracy and the supremacy of the law," he said.

The worst violence this weekend was in the Mediterranean coastal city of Port Said, where seven people were killed on Sunday, pushing the toll for two days of clashes to at least 44. The unrest was sparked on Saturday by a court conviction and death sentence for 21 defendants involved in a mass soccer riot in the city's main stadium on Feb. 1, 2012 that left 74 dead.

Most of those sentenced to death were local soccer fans from Port Said, deepening a sense of persecution that Port Said's residents have felt since the stadium disaster, the worst soccer violence ever in Egypt.

At least another 11 died on Friday elsewhere in the country during rallies marking the second anniversary of the anti-Mubarak uprising. Protesters used the occasion to renounce Morsi and his Islamic fundamentalist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, which emerged as the country's most dominant political force after Mubarak's ouster.

The curfew and state of emergency, both in force for 30 days, affect the provinces of Port Said, Ismailiya and Suez. The curfew takes effect Monday from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. every day.

Morsi, in office since June, also invited the nation's political forces to a dialogue starting Monday to resolve the country's latest crisis. A statement issued later by his office said that among those invited were the country's top reform leader, Nobel peace Laureate Mohammed ElBaradei, former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and Hamdeen Sabahi, a leftist politician who finished third in last year's presidential race.

The three are leaders of the National Salvation Front, an umbrella for the main opposition parties.

Khaled Dawoud, the Front's spokesman, said Morsi's invitation was meaningless unless he clearly states what is on the agenda. That, he added, must include amending a disputed constitution hurriedly drafted by the president's Islamist allies and rejected by the opposition.

He also faulted the president for not acknowledging his political responsibility for the latest bout of political violence.

"It is all too little too late," he told The Associated Press.

In many ways, Morsi's decree and his call for a dialogue betrayed his despair in the face of wave after wave of political unrest, violence and man-made disasters that, at times, made the country look like it was about to come unglued.

A relative unknown until his Muslim Brotherhood nominated him to run for president last year, Morsi is widely criticized for having offered no vision for the country's future after nearly 30 years of dictatorship under Mubarak and no coherent policy to tackle seemingly endless problems, from a free falling economy and deeply entrenched social injustices to surging crime and chaos on the streets.

Reform of the judiciary and the police, hated under the old regime for brutality, are also key demands of Morsi's critics.

Morsi did not say what he plans to do to stem the violence in other parts of the country outside those three provinces, but he did say he had instructed the police to deal "firmly and forcefully" with individuals attacking state institutions, using firearms to "terrorize" citizens or blocking roads and railway lines.

There were also clashes Sunday in Cairo and several cities in the Nile Delta region, including the industrial city of Mahallah.

Egypt's current crisis is the second to hit the country since November, when Morsi issued decrees, since rescinded, that gave him nearly unlimited powers and placed him above any oversight, including by the judiciary.

The latest eruption of political violence has deepened the malaise as Morsi struggles to get a grip on enormous social and economic problems and the increasingly dangerous fault lines that divide this nation of 85 million.

In an ominous sign, a one-time jihadist group on Sunday blamed the secular opposition for the violence and threatened to set up vigilante militias to defend the government it supports.

Addressing a news conference, Tareq el-Zomr of the once-jihadist Gamaa Islamiya, said:

"If security forces don't achieve security, it will be the right of the Egyptian people and we at the forefront to set up popular committees to protect private and public property and counter the aggression on innocent citizens."

His threat was accompanied by his charge that the opposition was responsible for the deadly violence of the past few days, setting the stage for possible bloody clashes between protesters and Islamist militiamen. The opposition denies the charge.

In Port Said on Sunday, tens of thousands of mourners poured into the streets for a mass funeral for most of the 37 people who died on Saturday. They chanted slogans against Morsi.

"We are now dead against Morsi," said Port Said activist Amira Alfy. "We will not rest now until he goes and we will not take part in the next parliamentary elections. Port Said has risen and will not allow even a semblance of normalcy to come back," she said.

The violence flared only a month after a prolonged crisis ? punctuated by deadly violence ? over the new constitution. Ten died in that round of unrest and hundreds were injured.

In Port Said, mourners chanted "There is no God but Allah," and "Morsi is God's enemy" as the funeral procession made its way through the city after prayers for the dead at the city's Mariam Mosque. Women clad in black led the chants, which were quickly picked up by the rest of the mourners.

There were no police or army troops in sight. But the funeral procession briefly halted after gunfire rang out. Security officials said the gunfire came from several mourners who opened fire at the Police Club next to the cemetery. Activists, however, said the gunfire first came from inside the army club, which is also close to the cemetery. Some of the mourners returned fire, which drew more shots as well as tear gas, according to witnesses. They, together with the officials, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation in the city on the Mediterranean at the northern tip of the Suez Canal.

A total of 630 people were injured, some of them with gunshot wounds, said Abdel-Rahman Farag, director of the city's hospitals.

Also Sunday, army troops backed by armored vehicles staked out positions at key government facilities to protect state interests and try to restore order.

There was also a funeral in Cairo for two policemen killed in the Port Said violence a day earlier. Several policemen grieving for their colleagues heckled Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim, who is in charge of the force, when he arrived for their funeral, according to witnesses.

The angry officers screamed at the minister that he was only at the funeral for the TV cameras ? a highly unusual show of dissent in Egypt, where the police force maintains military-like discipline.

Ibrahim hurriedly left and the funeral proceeded without him, a sign that the prestige of the state and its top executives were diminishing.

In Cairo, clashes broke out for the fourth straight day on Sunday, with protesters and police outside two landmark, Nile-side hotels near central Tahrir Square, birthplace of the 2011 uprising. Police fired tear gas while protesters pelted them with rocks.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2013-01-27-Egypt/id-c2829ef6b2de4310ba277e8ba32d5497

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Technology kills jobs for middle class | TribLIVE


By The Associated Press

Published: Saturday, January 26, 2013, 12:01?a.m.
Updated 14 hours ago

NEW YORK ? Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over.

And the situation is even worse than it appears.

Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What?s more, these jobs aren?t just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren?t just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.

They?re being obliterated by technology.

Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived.

?The jobs that are going away aren?t coming back,? says Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of ?Race Against the Machine.? ??I have never seen a period where computers demonstrated as many skills and abilities as they have over the past seven years.?

The global economy is being reshaped by machines that generate and analyze vast amounts of data; by devices such as smartphones and tablet computers that let people work just about anywhere; by smarter, nimbler robots; and by services that let businesses rent computing power when they need it, instead of installing expensive equipment and hiring IT staffs to run it. Whole employment categories, from secretaries to travel agents, are starting to disappear.

?There?s no sector of the economy that?s going to get a pass,? says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote ?The Lights in the Tunnel,? a book predicting widespread job losses. ?It?s everywhere.?

The numbers startle labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

In the 17 European countries that use the euro as their currency, the numbers are worse. Almost 4.3 million low-pay jobs have been gained since mid-2009, but the loss of midpay jobs has never stopped. A total of 7.6 million disappeared from January 2008 through last June.

Experts warn that this ?hollowing out? of the middle-class workforce is far from over. They predict the loss of millions more jobs as technology becomes even more sophisticated and reaches deeper into our lives. Maarten Goos, an economist at the University of Leuven in Belgium, says Europe could double its middle-class job losses.

Some occupations are beneficiaries of the march of technology, such as software engineers and app designers for smartphones and tablet computers. Overall, though, technology is eliminating far more jobs than it is creating.

To understand the impact technology is having on middle-class jobs in developed countries, the AP analyzed employment data from 20 countries; tracked changes in hiring by industry, pay and task; compared job losses and gains during recessions and expansions over the past four decades; and interviewed economists, technology experts, robot manufacturers, software developers, entrepreneurs and people in the labor force who ranged from CEOs to the unemployed.

The AP?s key findings:

? For more than three decades, technology has reduced the number of jobs in manufacturing. Robots and other machines controlled by computer programs work faster and make fewer mistakes than humans. Now, that same efficiency is being unleashed in the service economy, which employs more than two-thirds of the workforce in developed countries. Technology is eliminating jobs in office buildings, retail establishments and other businesses consumers deal with every day.

? Technology is being adopted by every kind of organization that employs people. It?s replacing workers in large corporations and small businesses, established companies and start-ups. It?s being used by schools, colleges and universities; hospitals and other medical facilities; nonprofit organizations and the military.

? The most vulnerable workers are doing repetitive tasks that programmers can write software for ? an accountant checking a list of numbers, an office manager filing forms, a paralegal reviewing documents for key words to help in a case. As software becomes even more sophisticated, victims are expected to include those who juggle tasks, such as supervisors and managers ? workers who thought they were protected by a college degree.

? Thanks to technology, companies in the Standard & Poor?s 500 stock index reported one-third more profit the past year than they earned the year before the Great Recession. They?ve also expanded their businesses, but total employment, at 21.1 million, has declined by a half-million.

? Start-ups account for much of the job growth in developed economies, but software is allowing entrepreneurs to launch businesses with a third fewer employees than in the 1990s. There is less need for administrative support and back-office jobs that handle accounting, payroll and benefits.

? It?s becoming a self-serve world. Instead of relying on someone else in the workplace or our personal lives, we use technology to do tasks ourselves. Some find this frustrating; others like the feeling of control. Either way, this trend will only grow as software permeates our lives.

? Technology is replacing workers in developed countries regardless of their politics, policies and laws. Union rules and labor laws may slow the dismissal of employees, but no country is attempting to prohibit organizations from using technology that allows them to operate more efficiently ? and with fewer employees.

Technological innovations have been throwing people out of jobs for centuries. But they eventually created more work, and greater wealth, than they destroyed. Ford, the author and software engineer, thinks there is reason to believe that this time will be different. He sees virtually no end to the inroads of computers into the workplace. Eventually, he says, software will threaten the livelihoods of doctors, lawyers and other highly skilled professionals.

Many economists are encouraged by history and think the gains eventually will outweigh the losses. But even they have doubts.

?What?s different this time is that digital technologies show up in every corner of the economy,? McAfee says.

Peter Lindert, an economist at the University of California, Davis, says the computer is more destructive than innovations in the Industrial Revolution because the pace at which it is upending industries makes it hard for people to adapt.

Occupations that provided middle-class lifestyles for generations can disappear in a few years. Utility meter readers are just one example. As power companies began installing so-called smart readers outside homes, the number of meter readers in the United States plunged from 56,000 in 2001 to 36,000 in 2010, according to the Labor Department.

In 10 years? That number is expected to be zero.

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Source: http://triblive.com/business/headlines/3351101-74/jobs-technology-software

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